In a recent critique of Allan Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” by Susan Shelley, Lichtman’s framework for predicting presidential election outcomes was misinterpreted. Lichtman, a political historian with a proven record of accuracy, defined specific criteria for evaluating the likelihood of a candidate winning the presidency.
Shelley’s criticisms of Lichtman’s keys, such as Key 3 (no serious contest for the incumbent), Key 8 (civil unrest), and Key 13 (the challenger is uncharismatic), are unfounded according to Lichtman’s definitions. Despite Shelley’s arguments about the Democratic primary and civil unrest, Lichtman’s criteria remain intact.
One key point of contention is Key 13, which states that the challenger must have broad appeal. While Trump may excite his base, Lichtman’s definition of charisma goes beyond mere enthusiasm from a specific portion of the electorate. Harris, on the other hand, may indeed possess the necessary charm to be a formidable challenger.
Shelley’s failure to align her criticisms with Lichtman’s established definitions weakens her argument. As a result, Harris appears to be in a strong position to break barriers and make history as the first woman of mixed race to shatter the ultimate glass ceiling in American politics.
Overall, Lichtman’s “13 Keys to the White House” offer a comprehensive framework for predicting election outcomes, and his track record of success adds credibility to his analysis. As the 2020 election approaches, all eyes will be on whether Lichtman’s keys accurately forecast the future occupant of the White House.
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